02-04-2012, 12:49 PM
My interpretation of how the present is going to influence the future:
As has been pointed out, the mainstream plastic and die cast model producers are in a tightening increasing cost and reduced production spiral, similar to what brass went through in the '80s and '90s. I don't see any easy way out, especially with an aging customer base. Yes, there are new younger modelers, but I don't think they have the same numbers in the hobby as the baby boomers. So as the boomers age and die off, the number of model railroaders is going to contract somewhat. Not disappear, just contract. And the highly detailed mass produced plastic and die cast models are going to die out due to price/run size spiral. There will be high cost, small production runs remaining just as there is currently in O gauge and HO brass.
At the same time, flying beneath the radar of hobby shops and the hobby magazines, supplying the craftsman side of the hobby with low rate production kits is growing much faster than I would have anticipated. 3-D printing may push this trend even faster - the initial results are just starting to come out. But just home-based resin casting and laser cutting is growing weekly. It used to be for such a venture to get started required advertising in the hobby magazines to get noticed at all. But with on-line sales and ability to announce new products through various Internet forums, the entry costs associated with advertising and finding a distributor are no longer requirements. As an indication, for the more popular craftsman kits, you may have to wait a year after you order. I just saved the money and ordered a Keystone Shay mechanism - expected shipment is next Jan. I have run into six month delays between order and shipping for specific resin car kits. I am now spending about half my hobby budget ordering directly from small manufacturers instead of through my LHS.
Many of these small manufacturers will not distribute through Walthers because of Walthers requirements for production quantities and delivery dates, and because of the necessary discount they have to give Walthers. They can sell what they produce directly. This puts the LHS in a bind having to deal directly with dozens of manufacturers instead of ordering through a distributor.
To me, the implication for the future is a growing gulf between the train set folks and the "serious" modelers. Kalmbach used to have a magazine called Model Trains specifically aimed at promoting train set owners into model railroaders. Kalmbach gave up on the magazine because you only repeat yourself so many time in a monthly magazine. Model Railroader took over some of that function with their project layouts. When plastic (and modern die-cast) production became as nearly detailed as brass had been, the entry bar to become a model railroader reached its lowest point. Right now, you can virtually buy everything for a decent-looking and running layout RTR, no large learning curve required, right at your LHS. But, as discussed, the costs of the RTR approach are rising much faster than US inflation. In the '50s, becoming a model railroader required one to learn to build kits - not necessarily a trivial skill.
And so the skill gap between train set owners and a significantly smaller population of model railroaders will return.
just my thoughts
Fred W
As has been pointed out, the mainstream plastic and die cast model producers are in a tightening increasing cost and reduced production spiral, similar to what brass went through in the '80s and '90s. I don't see any easy way out, especially with an aging customer base. Yes, there are new younger modelers, but I don't think they have the same numbers in the hobby as the baby boomers. So as the boomers age and die off, the number of model railroaders is going to contract somewhat. Not disappear, just contract. And the highly detailed mass produced plastic and die cast models are going to die out due to price/run size spiral. There will be high cost, small production runs remaining just as there is currently in O gauge and HO brass.
At the same time, flying beneath the radar of hobby shops and the hobby magazines, supplying the craftsman side of the hobby with low rate production kits is growing much faster than I would have anticipated. 3-D printing may push this trend even faster - the initial results are just starting to come out. But just home-based resin casting and laser cutting is growing weekly. It used to be for such a venture to get started required advertising in the hobby magazines to get noticed at all. But with on-line sales and ability to announce new products through various Internet forums, the entry costs associated with advertising and finding a distributor are no longer requirements. As an indication, for the more popular craftsman kits, you may have to wait a year after you order. I just saved the money and ordered a Keystone Shay mechanism - expected shipment is next Jan. I have run into six month delays between order and shipping for specific resin car kits. I am now spending about half my hobby budget ordering directly from small manufacturers instead of through my LHS.
Many of these small manufacturers will not distribute through Walthers because of Walthers requirements for production quantities and delivery dates, and because of the necessary discount they have to give Walthers. They can sell what they produce directly. This puts the LHS in a bind having to deal directly with dozens of manufacturers instead of ordering through a distributor.
To me, the implication for the future is a growing gulf between the train set folks and the "serious" modelers. Kalmbach used to have a magazine called Model Trains specifically aimed at promoting train set owners into model railroaders. Kalmbach gave up on the magazine because you only repeat yourself so many time in a monthly magazine. Model Railroader took over some of that function with their project layouts. When plastic (and modern die-cast) production became as nearly detailed as brass had been, the entry bar to become a model railroader reached its lowest point. Right now, you can virtually buy everything for a decent-looking and running layout RTR, no large learning curve required, right at your LHS. But, as discussed, the costs of the RTR approach are rising much faster than US inflation. In the '50s, becoming a model railroader required one to learn to build kits - not necessarily a trivial skill.
And so the skill gap between train set owners and a significantly smaller population of model railroaders will return.
just my thoughts
Fred W