Looks like google predicts the end of model trains

[Sumpter250]

When you started scratchbuilding, did you have guidance? did someone teach you, or were you self taught? I think our culture has changed since then, and I'm not so sure it is a simple step to go your route these days.

Someone taught me. OK - - Me.....and the authors of the construction articles in Model Railroader, Model Trains, and Railroad Model Craftsman.
( I am, of course assuming that the younger folk of this day and age, can actually learn something from the printed word )
I stated earlier in this thread, " We all just have to be willing to teach the "new kids" how it's done . "
That's part of what makes this board so valuable. The "How To's " we post here, are the modern equivalent of the old,
" Construction Articles ". Here, the learners can ask, and we can answer them.

[Brakie]

Certainly the hobby is changing. The trend is towards larger scales and mega-layouts, well beyond the means of a lot of adult modelers, let alone young people. It's also a largely sedentary hobby that mostly takes place indoors, which is not usually attractive to young, active people.
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I'm not sure if Godzilla size layouts is still the current trend unless its a Model Railroader article.

I think the trend for the average joe modeler is building smaller highly detailed layouts..

I've also noted the increase interest in ISLs..Lance Mindheim has 4 books covering switching layouts and You Tube add dozens of videos on switching layouts.

[teejay]

I've always felt the Small Layout Scrapbook was popular and any newbies I encounter are encouraged to look it up so that they don't feel they have to have a huge layout . That site also demonstrates that the interest is worldwide not just local or in a magazine . I certainly got tired of working on my own ( too) big steel mill layout , so tore it down and am happy working on my mini . I plan to bring people in to show them what can be done in a small space .

T

[Lester Perry]

Okay everyone. I actively promote the hobby by taking part in open house schedule. Last weekend was my open house, I had about 30-35 people in two days and I live off the beaten path. I have spoken to others in the past and they have 50 or 60 a day for several days. I had several kids show up and I always give kids a chance to run trains. I have given adults a chance to do some switching in my yard or run a local. They love it, not knowing about that aspect of the hobby. Now you are going to say but there is no open house schedule in my area. I say so start one.

[Brakie]

I plan to bring people in to show them what can be done in a small space .

T
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That's exactly what needs to be done.One of my gripes over the years is the way most modelers pushes the idea one needs a large layout with DCC,correct high dollar cars and locomotives of course we know who started that push.

Every year during the fair I'm asked about the cost of the hobby and my standard reply is "as much as you want to spend".Then I proceed to tell them a sheet of 4x8 foot plywood,some support lumber for framing and for legs,some track,some structures, a power pack 1 or 2 engines and 20-30 freight cars or you can fill your basement with a layout with hundreds of engines and cars..Of course a cheaper way is to buy 2-3 engines some cars and join the club..Or buy a engine or two and used the club cars.

They usually reply "Then its up to the person on how much they want to spend?"

My reply..Yup,that covers it.

Few ask about the closet hobby shop while many ask if you can buy model trains on line.

[Tyson Rayles]

Yeah Larry, that's the one thing I don't like about the museum. People see that 45' by 25' layout and all those trains on the wall with $$$$$ values in the thousands in some cases and they think they need a 1000 square feet and a million $$$$ to enjoy the hobby. I am always quick to tell them basically what you do and I keep pics of my 6 foot by 28 inch home layout and pics of my shoebox layout down there to show them what can be done in a small space. I also encourge the others that work there to downplay the size and cost factor when talking to the people. Even though I've been in hospitals and rehab centers for the past three months thru the use of my laptop I've continued to promote the hobby. On a side note I continue to be amazed at the amount of women who show a strong interest in the hobby.

[talltim]

I've seen this discussion so mny times over the years, in letters pages of magazines (I've read every issue of Railway Modeller, a UK magazine from 1956 to 1986) and online and the thing I've never really understood is why it matters if the hobby goes into a decline?
Do I care if I become the last rail modeller and when I die it dies too? Selfish? Discuss. :wink:

[teejay]

I don't have any problem with it Talltim .......we all have choices . Noone helped me get involved with trains , as a kid , and I found my own enjoyment through train mags and other peoples layouts ...no big deal .

I guess it's just my own temperment that makes me want to promote the hobby . In the same fashion , when I was in the car business for 25 years , I would ask about someones first car and parlay that into a discussion about cars and the car hobby . Sometimes it worked , sometimes it didn't .

[Brakie]

Do I care if I become the last rail modeller and when I die it dies too? Selfish? Discuss.
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Nah,you're just speaking your thoughts just like us that would like to see the hobby survive -no big deal really.

It takes a special breed of person to enjoy steel wheels on steel rail and as long as those wheels and rails meet you will have model railroading and--------------------------------------- railfaning..

[Sumpter250]

As long as there are model-makers, who enjoy building scale models.....there will be a need for a place to display those models. That can lead to the creation of ( for example ) a Seaport Village and museum, for the display of sailing vessel models, which leads to a reason for the village * people *, which leads to a means by which the people get to the seaport village and museum car, bus, ....*train? *, which then requires a railroad station, and a passenger train *service*, which opens the door for freight train *service*, which . . . . .
Then, all these ships, buildings,depots,trains, need a world to exist in * layout *!!!!!
- -And that world, needs some "natural setting" * trees, shrubs, ground, water, rocks, homes, power lines, and more!
Outside of military dioramas, and other small dioramas, only model railroading provides the environment for all these different models to co-exist peacefully, together.

UNLESS- - - - - Google intends to replace all other hobbies with ONE, *cyber hobby*

Wow !!! look at all that instant unemployment !! People with plenty of time, but, unfortunately no money to pay for internet service, so no additional devotees of that *One Cyber Hobby*- - - so the cycle has no choice but to begin again!

, model railroading ebbs and flows, but I really do not see it ever, ending.

[ezdays]

Let's just look at the bottom line economics of this. What would companies like Atlas, Kato, Lionel. MRC, Soundtraxx or Bachmann (to name a few), manufacture if there were no modelers to buy their products? What would Walther's, Brooklyn Locomotive or Caboose Hobbies sell if there were no modelers around to sell to? How about all those shops that just sell to the modelers or the hobby shops that dedicate a large portion of their store to model railroading, what would they do? It's marketing that keeps the world running, they create an interest and that sells product. No, you won't find Atlas or Athearn putting on a Super Bowel commercial, but if things began to slip enough to hurt sales, you can be sure they'll be doing what they need to in order to keep old and existing customers and to bring in new ones. The little guys in the supply chain may bite the dust, but the big ones won't let it happen at all cost (think: an Atlas GP-38 with DCC and sound for around $50 would do that job).... that is if there is a need, and I doubt that there will ever been a need. Discretionary spending always declines in poor economic times, but the interest in things like model railroading doesn't. Better times changes interest into spending and doing...

[Green_Elite_Cab]

, model railroading ebbs and flows, but I really do not see it ever, ending.

To be honest, the title of the thread was somewhat intentionally over the top. I'm pretty sure I posted it when I was low on sleep! At the time, I thought it was an interesting feature of google to see how much people searched things.

Someone taught me. OK - - Me.....and the authors of the construction articles in Model Railroader, Model Trains, and Railroad Model Craftsman.
( I am, of course assuming that the younger folk of this day and age, can actually learn something from the printed word )
I stated earlier in this thread, " We all just have to be willing to teach the "new kids" how it's done . "
That's part of what makes this board so valuable. The "How To's " we post here, are the modern equivalent of the old,
" Construction Articles ". Here, the learners can ask, and we can answer them.

I wouldn't say that articles (printed or otherwise) are not as effective as they have always been, but when it comes to kitbashing or scratchbuilding, I think they are not the best for beginners, at least not these days. Most do not give a "global", basic understanding of basic techniques and tools required for kitbashing. Frequently, they are articles about someone else's kitbash or scratchbuild, and they usually are very vague and expect the reader to fill in some of the blanks, which is intimidating to a young person or a newbie.

I feel like most of the time when I've attempted such things, its only cooking it in my mind for a few weeks. I often find after the fact that there was an easier way to do what I had attempted to do.

[teejay]

My first kitbashing attempts were , of course , hopelessly bad , but I didn't have much money ( as a teen ) to buy things so I had to make them . I think my biggest influences back then were Bill McClanahan , Jack Work and Earl Smallshaw . They were in a league of their own but atleast gave me some impetus . I don't get many mrring mags these days but I wonder who the high caliber scratchbuiders would be for a beginner ?

T

[radivil]

Amazing...

Everyone is leaping to dire conclusions because "Google says so". This is the same "Google", may I remind you, that censors the internet on behalf of repressive governments.

Technically, Google said nothing. I didn't say anything one way or another. What they did say "here is a datapoint that represents the trending of a specific term." Any conclusion derived from this was a conclusion that individuals not affiliated with Google made.

At the same time, and I'm even going to throw this out as a professional opinion (I'm an analyst that deals with this sort of stuff from time to time), the conclusion is flawed. The main issue is that no one, no one, just searches "model railroad." They're looking at targeted searches for related terms. Real growth in the hobby is probably very low. But at the same time, the demographic that is interested in it is getting much more technologically savvy. This is a very important part. They're becoming less and less likely to just mash "MODEL TRAIN" and instead start searching things like "Athearn GP38-2."

The data being discussed here is way more complicated than anyone seems to think it is. If you look up something like, oh, Big Ten Football, you'd think that every year was the end of the conference and that every Michigan, Ohio State, Nebraska, and Penn State fan disappeared into the ether never to be seen again only to mysteriously appear again in the fall (at declining rates as well, because few college football fans actually search for "Big Ten Football" and not "Wisconsin 2009 schedule" when they want to see who Wisconsin lost to that season because of a bar argument about some QB).

[Green_Elite_Cab]

At the same time, and I'm even going to throw this out as a professional opinion (I'm an analyst that deals with this sort of stuff from time to time), the conclusion is flawed. The main issue is that no one, no one, just searches "model railroad." They're looking at targeted searches for related terms. Real growth in the hobby is probably very low. But at the same time, the demographic that is interested in it is getting much more technologically savvy. This is a very important part. They're becoming less and less likely to just mash "MODEL TRAIN" and instead start searching things like "Athearn GP38-2."....

...The data being discussed here is way more complicated than anyone seems to think it is.

I had posted this elsewhere and was immeadiately called out for that exact reason. I almost immeadiately regretted the posting (both here and elsewhere) for that reason as soon as I woke up that morning.

Good thing none of my statistics professors come here..... and personally I should know better. I major in Biosciences, and posting up such misleading data is wrong, and i would never do it there. I shouldn't have done it here either.